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Palantir (PLTR) is riding 70% revenue growth and retail momentum, but trades at a P/E of 229—faith-based multiples that explode on any AI narrative cooldown or political headwind.
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and ASML wasn't one of them. Get them here FREE.
Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) is back atop every retail watchlist, riding a 70% revenue quarter and a CEO who keeps reminding everyone he runs an "n of 1" business.
The setup carries real risk underneath the momentum.
Palantir trades at a trailing P/E of 229, a forward P/E of 112, and a price-to-sales ratio of 77. Those are faith-based multiples that demand flawless execution for years, even against management's own 61% YoY revenue guide for 2026. Any cooling of the AI narrative compresses the multiple violently.
The political exposure is the part retail keeps ignoring. Palantir derives 93% of Q4 revenue from the U.S. market, with $570 million from U.S. government contracts subject to termination for convenience provisions. The April 29 Reddit spike on the "FAA $32.5 billion contract" thread is exactly the problem: every legislative cycle, every administration change, every export control debate sits on top of the bull thesis. Layer in $684 million in FY2025 stock-based compensation and a -18.95% YTD price, and the picture is a retail-crowded story stock digesting its own enthusiasm.
ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) are where every AI chip on earth must physically pass through. Three reasons each.
Sole supplier of EUV lithography systems, including the High NA EXE platform. Every leading-edge die starts on an ASML tool.
Year-end 2025 backlog of $45.06 billion on the back of a record Q4 bookings number of $15.28 billion. Q1 2026 already delivered $10.34 billion in revenue and EPS of $8.43 at a 53.0% gross margin.
Capital return investors can spend: a €7.50 per share dividend for 2025, up 17% YoY, plus an active buyback program. CEO Christophe Fouquet flagged that "Demand for chips is outpacing supply" with customers accelerating 2026 capacity plans.
72.3% global foundry market share. NVIDIA, AMD, Apple silicon, Broadcom, and the hyperscaler ASIC wave all funnel through Taiwan Semi fabs.
AI demand is visible in the actual product mix: HPC at 61% of revenue, with advanced nodes (7nm and below) representing 74% of wafer revenue, 3nm at 25%, and 5nm at 36%.
Q1 2026 revenue reached $35.90 billion, up 35.1% YoY, with a 66.2% gross margin and 50.5% net margin. Q2 guidance points to $39.0B to $40.2B in revenue and FY2026 USD revenue growth above 30%. Reddit's own retail crowd flagged the disconnect with a thread literally titled "Why the lack of interest in TSM and SK on this sub?"
Retirement-focused capital can participate in the AI build-out through the infrastructure layer rather than the 200-times-earnings narrative trade. ASML rallied 33.86% YTD and Taiwan Semi 31.22% YTD while Palantir gave back ground. The chokepoint names offer exposure to the same AI build-out without the multiple-compression risk embedded in the crowded trade.
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