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With critical triggers like state election results and Q4 earnings converging, investors are navigating a landscape defined by high uncertainty. Strategic clarity remains elusive, making it difficult for traders to act decisively.
Buy above ₹415, stop ₹395, target ₹460 (multiday)
Buy above ₹930, stop ₹890, target ₹1025 (multiday)
Buy above ₹1025, stop ₹960, target ₹1125 (multiday)
Indian equity markets staged a strong rebound on 4 May, with both benchmark indices closing higher after Thursday’s sharp sell-off. The Sensex rose 356 points to settle at 77,269, while the Nifty gained 122 points to finish at 24,119, supported by broad-based buying across sectors. Investor sentiment was buoyed by robust April auto sales data, easing crude oil prices, and positive political cues, which together helped restore confidence.
Realty and metal stocks led the rally, with realty advancing over 2%, while FMCG counters also saw strong traction following upbeat earnings, highlighted by Hindustan Unilever’s sharp gains. On the other hand, IT and PSU banks witnessed mild profit booking, capping broader market upside. Midcap and smallcap indices outperformed, reflecting renewed retail participation. Overall, the rebound underscored resilience in domestic equities, with supportive macro factors and sectoral strength providing a firm base for continued momentum in the near term.
On the technical charts, market trends currently favor short-term trading over long-term investing. On the hourly charts, the combination of the highlighted gap area and the 61.8% Fibonacci support trendline helped prices move above the "cloud" region on Friday. An emerging rally appears to be in progress as markets stabilize after a two-month run; however, geopolitical uncertainty requires a cautious approach.
Hourly momentum indicators suggest that prices have settled as selling pressure subsides. Following Friday’s gradual recovery from support levels, further gains are expected. For a bearish outlook to return, Nifty must drop below 24,000, with Open Interest data pointing to the next support at 23,800. A 30-minute range breakout on Tuesday could signal a trade in either direction, but because the market is range-bound, traders should take profits quickly as momentum remains limited.
Options data shows a Put-Call Ratio (PCR) of 0.61, indicating a critical stage where Put writing at the 23,200–23,500 levels is defending against sell-offs. Investors should remain alert to multiple triggers, including global tariff threats, cautious sentiment, and domestic economic challenges, all of which have contributed to recent market volatility and pressure on the rupee.
Currently, bearish momentum has failed to pull the index significantly lower. Unless Nifty decisively breaks below 24,000, Open Interest data suggests immediate support at 24,100, with resistance holding at 24,500. Because a range-bound market is in effect, traders should be quick to take profits, as the current trend lacks the strength to move sharply in either direction.
Raja Venkatraman is co-founder, NeoTrader. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Raja Venkatraman is the co-founder of NeoTrader, where he heads the training division. He conducts both offline and live market workshops, seminars, and webinars. He has been working under the guidance of Dr C K Narayan, his mentor and founder of Growth Avenues, for more than 20 years. He is an active trader in multiple asset classes, and actively shares his views on YouTube, blogs at NeoTrader, and on reputed news channels and websites. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223.
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