United Breweries shares fall nearly 5% after Q4 results. Is it time to buy or sell?

United Breweries shares slumped nearly 5% on Wednesday, 6 May, after Q4 results. United Breweries reported a 4.2% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to ₹101.87 crore for the March quarter (Q4 FY26), compared with ₹97.76 crore in the same period last year, according to its regulatory filing.

However, revenue from operations was slightly lower at ₹4,408.41 crore versus ₹4,427.15 crore a year ago, indicating marginal pressure on topline growth despite improved profitability. Total income also edged down to ₹4,416.56 crore during the quarter.

The company noted that Q4 marked a “strong finish” to the year, with the beer category returning to growth, supported by sustained momentum in its premium portfolio. Premium brands such as Kingfisher Ultra, Kingfisher Ultra Max, and Heineken Silver continued to perform strongly.

Volume growth stood at 4.1% in Q4, driven by Andhra Pradesh, Assam, and Maharashtra, though partially offset by declines in Rajasthan, Telangana, and Odisha. Around 80% of UBL’s markets returned to growth during the quarter.

Total expenses rose 1.67% year-on-year to ₹4,374.28 crore.

For FY26 as a whole, UBL reported a 6.55% decline in net profit to ₹413.39 crore, reflecting a mixed full-year performance despite improved momentum in the final quarter.

According to Equirus Securities, United Breweries continues to strengthen its manufacturing footprint, with ongoing greenfield expansion in Uttar Pradesh and capacity additions in key markets to support premium portfolio growth.

The brokerage noted that management maintains a constructive medium- to long-term outlook; however, near-term recovery is likely to depend on favourable weather conditions, pricing actions, and improved trade liquidity. Considering these near-term headwinds, Equirus has cut its FY27 EBITDA estimates by 27%.

The firm highlighted key upside risks to its view, including faster-than-expected demand recovery, significant deflation in input costs, and positive regulatory developments across operating states. While UBL remains structurally well-placed, with strong market share potential and premiumisation tailwinds, the current macro and regulatory environment is expected to keep near-term margins under pressure.

Equirus has downgraded the stock to ‘Reduce’ from ‘Add’, with a revised target price of ₹1,424 for June 2027, valuing the stock at 48x (earlier 50x) on June 2028 estimated trailing twelve-month EPS of ₹29.7.

United Breweries shares today opened at ₹1,426.15 apiece on the BSE, the stock touched an intraday low of ₹1,382 per share, and an intraday high of ₹1,429.35.

According to Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical and Derivative Analyst at Angel One, the stock has remained under sustained pressure and continues to underperform. He noted that it opened with a gap-down move and is currently trading below its January swing low of around ₹1,400.

Bhosale said that if the stock continues to sustain below the ₹1,400 mark, it could witness further weakness in the near term, potentially moving towards ₹1,250 levels. On the upside, he highlighted that a bearish gap around ₹1,450 is likely to act as immediate resistance.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

Dhanya Nagasundaram works as a Content Producer at LiveMint, specializing in news related to financial markets, stocks, and business. With over eight years of experience in journalism and content creation, she has honed her skills in data-driven reporting and market analysis. Her focus is on monitoring stock trends, initial public offerings (IPOs), corporate news, policy shifts, and larger economic trends that affect investors and market players. <br><br> At LiveMint, Dhanya consistently writes and produces articles that make complex financial topics accessible to readers. She keeps a close eye on equity markets, commodities, and macroeconomic indicators, assisting audiences in comprehending how global and domestic events influence investment perspectives. Her stories frequently underscore emerging trends within sectors, the IPO market, company earnings results, and market strategies pertinent to both retail and institutional investors. <br><br> Before her tenure at LiveMint, Dhanya accumulated a wealth of professional experience at various companies, including MintGenie, Informist, Cogenics, Chary Publications, KPMG, and the Royal Bank of Scotland. These positions allowed her to establish a solid foundation in financial research, reporting, and content creation. <br><br> Throughout her career, she has explored numerous subjects such as trading strategies, commodities, IPOs, wealth generation, corporate profits, and macroeconomic indicators. Her background in both financial journalism and corporate settings has given her the ability to tackle stories with analytical rigor while ensuring clarity for her audience. Through her contributions, Dhanya strives to deliver insightful, trustworthy, and investor-centric financial content.

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