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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 3% intraday as spot gold trades near $4,695 an ounce, while iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is rallying 6% with silver jumping to roughly $77 an ounce, driven by reduced inflation expectations following potential Iran nuclear deal talks and a softer dollar weakening the DXY by 1%.
Reports of a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement are dragging down crude oil nearly 9%, recalibrating inflation expectations and opening the door for potential Fed rate cuts, which is prompting investors to rotate into non-yielding assets like gold and silver despite a strong April jobs report.
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The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (^XAU) is climbing roughly 8% this morning as a wave of buying hits both bullion and the equities that mine it. Spot gold is trading near $4,695 an ounce, up about 3%, while silver is jumping a sharper 5.5% to roughly $77 an ounce. The catalyst is a combination of geopolitical headlines, a softer dollar, and a shift in the inflation outlook. Reports that Washington and Tehran are closing in on a nuclear agreement sent crude oil tumbling nearly 9%, and with energy prices having been one of the main drivers of stubbornly elevated inflation since the conflict began, the prospect of relief at the pump is prompting traders to recalibrate their expectations for Fed policy. Lower inflation pressure over time means a clearer path to rate cuts, and investors are reaching for gold and silver, buoying the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (^XAU) closer to its highs of the year.
The session's biggest spark came from reports suggesting the U.S. is close to a one-page memorandum with Iran to end the war. Gold futures responded with an upward move and silver futures with a 6% jump. Counterintuitively, peace talk is helping bullion because it is dragging the dollar lower. The DXY eased 1%, which mechanically lifts dollar-priced metals and pulls in cross-border buyers.
Gold had actually underperformed during the Iran war relative to stocks and bitcoin, so today reads as a delayed catch-up trade.
April's ADP report showed private payrolls growing by 109,000, comfortably ahead of the 84,000 Wall Street had anticipated and the strongest reading since early 2025. Wages for workers staying in their current roles climbed 4.4% annually, while job-changers saw gains of around 7%. A labor market printing numbers like that would ordinarily weigh on gold, reinforcing the case for the Fed to stay put on rates and keeping the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset elevated.
Gold had other ideas. Bullion was trading near $4,685 per ounce early Wednesday, up roughly $120 from the prior session, as the prospect of an Iran nuclear agreement overshadowed the jobs data entirely. With crude tumbling sharply on de-escalation hopes, inflation fears that have kept the Fed pinned in place for months are beginning to recede, and that shift is giving gold room to run even as the labor market holds firm.
The investor-facing layer is moving in lockstep. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) is up 3% intraday, and iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) is rallying 6%. Stocks and metals rarely rally together unless the dollar is the swing factor. Silver outpacing gold is the tell here. Silver has industrial exposure that gold lacks, so when both rally together it usually signals investors expect easier policy without a recession.
Friday's upcoming non-farm payrolls report is the next swing factor. A confirming miss would extend the bid for metals and miners. Confirmation or denial of the Iran deal could whip the dollar in either direction.
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