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Short seller James Chanos has questioned investor Cathie Wood-led investment firm ARK Invest‘s prediction that Robotaxis could become a $34 trillion market by 2030.
Quoting a post by Ark Invest on the social media platform X on Monday, Chanos questioned Ark’s approach. The investment firm shared that over 90% of the $34 trillion opportunity would be going to the “technology providers,” adding that Uber Technologies Inc. was also vying to be a part of the market and was investing in all non-Tesla Inc. Robotaxi companies.
“Umm, isn't that 100% of US GDP in four years…?” Chanos asked in his post, questioning the logic behind the firm’s hyper-bullish Robotaxi prediction.
Umm, isn't that 100% of US GDP in four years…? https://t.co/eHDE6qffLV
— James Chanos (@RealJimChanos) May 5, 2026
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According to data by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2026 is over $32.28 trillion, with that number growing to nearly $40 trillion by 2030.
The U.S. GDP also recorded a 2.0% increase in the first quarter of 2026, according to data shared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
However, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric to calculate inflation, also rose 3.5% YoY in March 2026 and 3.2% YoY excluding Food and Energy during the same period
In the U.S., Alphabet Inc. remains the leader in the Robotaxi sector with Waymo, which recently announced that it had successfully reached the 500,000 rides per week milestone. Waymo currently operates in over 10 cities across the U.S.
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On the other hand, Tesla, which is another key player in the sector, has had a slower-than-expected start to its Robotaxi service. The company offers Unsupervised rides in Austin, Houston and Dallas with 20, three and three unsupervised vehicles, respectively, after nearly a year since it first kicked off the service in June 2025.
Uber, however, has committed to invest over $10 billion to bolster its Robotaxi credentials, with investments targeting acquiring equity stakes in companies, as well as buying its own vehicles. The ride-hailing giant also launched Europe's first commercial Robotaxi service in the Croatian capital Zagreb.
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