SONAR Sitrep: Fleet safety behind the curb post-freight recession

Nearly one in five commercial trucks currently on U.S. roads fails to meet basic roadworthiness standards – a metric that stands as the #1 predictor of fatal accidents.

As the freight cycle recovers and utilization rises, the industry is confronting a massive accumulation of deferred maintenance from the prolonged freight recession of 2022–2026.

During that time, a squeeze on carrier margins forced widespread deferral of equipment upkeep. As high-frequency data confirms, that risk is now coming back online.

This maintenance crisis is showing up clearly in enforcement data. High-frequency SONAR indices, including the ELP Enforcement Index, track a tightening regulatory environment. The current Vehicle Out-of-Service (OOS) rate has hit 21.6% across 3.3 million inspections, resulting in over 700,000 vehicles being removed from the road annually.

The risk is compounded by an enforcement lag. The system currently audits just 1.5% of carriers per year, meaning the average carrier will not face a comprehensive audit for 65 years at current staffing levels.

This technical crisis is unfolding alongside the most consequential stretch of safety policy in a generation. In April 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order which fundamentally shifted the focus to English proficiency and non-domiciled CDL irregularities to prevent catastrophic failures caused by “chameleon carriers.”

A recent fleet management study by J.J. Keller also shows that visible executive commitment to fleet safety culture has declined over the past two years.

Want to understand how these maintenance economics and regulatory shifts will reshape capacity and your safety-market cycle? Read the full sitrep by signing up for SONAR or request a demo here.

The Maintenance Feedback Loop: The economics of deferred maintenance during freight recessions and how that risk manifests as utilization rises.

Regulatory Compliance Shocks: Deeper analysis of the 2025 Executive Order’s impact on carrier operating authority and driver credentials.

C-Suite Safety Visibility Gap: Why executive engagement is the thread separating fleets that adapt from those that fall behind.

Actionable Safety Forecasting: Using SONAR’s OTRI, OTVI, and ELP Enforcement Index to anticipate market-wide safety risks.

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