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(Bloomberg) -- A fresh batch of consumer price data in the coming week is likely to affirm Americans’ growing frustration with inflation.
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Economists see a sharp 0.6% increase in the consumer price index for April, based on the Bloomberg survey median estimate. That’s on the heels of March’s biggest monthly advance since 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report is due Tuesday.
Prices at the gas pump have vaulted more than 50% since the US- and Israeli-led war on Iran started in late February, recently topping $4.50 a gallon on average.
At least some of the swift upturn in fuel prices is likely to be passed on by businesses in the form of higher consumer prices for other goods and services, including airfares. Excluding energy and food, the so-called core CPI — a measure of underlying inflation — is projected to accelerate slightly in April.
A University of Michigan survey out Friday showed US consumers becoming more rattled in recent weeks, with a gauge of sentiment slipping to a fresh record low. Their concerns centered on erosion of household finances and buying conditions from inflation.
Consumer-facing companies such as Kraft Heinz Co. and McDonald’s Corp. are also apprehensive about budget-constrained shoppers. Government data due on Thursday will be used to gauge the impact on retail spending momentum from higher gas prices.
Excluding gasoline service stations and car dealers, retail sales are seen rising a healthy 0.4% in April — just a modest step down from the 0.6% increases posted in the prior two months. The data, however, aren’t adjusted for changes in prices.
The inflation and retail sales data “should show an economy slowing only modestly, while inflation remains uncomfortably high. That combination won’t create urgency for the Fed to cut rates anytime soon. Another firm core CPI print, in particular, could keep the Fed hawkish for a while.”
— Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Chris G. Collins, Troy Durie and Alex Tanzi. For full analysis, click here
Meanwhile, the producer price index out Wednesday is expected to show another 0.5% increase in April wholesale inflation. Excluding fuel and food, the measure probably accelerated from a month earlier.
Other data in the coming week include April existing-home sales on Monday and the Federal Reserve’s industrial production report out Friday.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the US
Further north, Canadian existing home sales for April may show a slight rebound, with early data from local real estate boards in Toronto, Ottawa and Calgary recording an uptick even as other markets such as Vancouver and Montreal continued to slump. Housing starts may also be stronger on a monthly basis.
Trade-sensitive manufacturing and wholesale sales are expected to rise in March as the Middle East war drove up energy prices. Statistics Canada’s flash estimate suggested factory sales jumped 3.5% that month, while wholesales were up 1.3%. Michelle Alexopoulos, external deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, will give a speech.
Elsewhere, aside from US President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Beijing for a high-stakes summit with counterpart Xi Jinping and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s meetings with top China and Japan officials, inflation numbers from China and India to Brazil, and UK growth data will be among the highlights.
Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.
The week kicks off on Monday with an update on China’s price trends. Consumer inflation is expected to have cooled in April to 0.8% as personal consumption stayed soft. After turning positive in March for the first time in 41 months, factory-gate price growth is seen accelerating in April to 1.8% on the back of higher energy prices, the quickest since August 2022.
India releases inflation data for April the next day, after prices climbed in March at the fastest clip in a year.
Also on Tuesday, Australia hands down its annual budget, aiming to tackle intergenerational inequality and moribund productivity, as well as cushion the blow of rising energy and borrowing costs. That comes in the evening, hours after the release of a pair of gauges that may show Australian sentiment remains grim.
The Westpac consumer confidence index for May comes after the gauge slid in April to the lowest since August 2020, while data from National Australia Bank will show how business confidence fared in April after it slumped in March to the lowest in almost six years. Australia also publishes a first-quarter wage data figures on Wednesday. Price pressures prompted another rate hike from the central bank on May 5.
Japan’s household spending data for March, due on Tuesday, will show whether steps by the government to mitigate the soaring cost of living are starting to revive outlays after three straight months of declines.
On Friday, New Zealand releases its manufacturing PMI for April after the index fell for a third straight month in March, even while staying in expansionary territory. Monthly food prices will also be released, and India publishes trade figures along with its April unemployment rate.
No rate decisions are due in Asia, but several speaking engagements of note by central bankers are on the calendar.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman appears on a panel on Tuesday, where she may give her thoughts on whether short-term inflation is likely to feed into more persistent price pressure. Pricing in the rate swaps market indicates a small chance of a hike at the next RBNZ decision on May 27.
Two Bank of Japan officials deliver speeches. Board Member Kazuyuki Masu and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino both voted with the majority to hold settings steady last month. Traders see a 65% chance of a hike on June 16.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia
The UK will draw a lot of attention. In the aftermath of a key electoral test for embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer, King Charles III is set to announce the government’s legislative agenda on Wednesday at the opening of parliament.
Meanwhile, first-quarter gross domestic product is due on Thursday, and economists anticipate the numbers to show a growth spurt of 0.6%, the fastest pace in a year.
But such a result may paint a rosier picture than is really the case, according to the private concerns among Bank of England officials. Public appearances by them include rate-setter Catherine Mann on Wednesday and chief economist Huw Pill on Thursday.
Few European Central Bank officials are on the calendar in what should be a quieter week in the euro zone. Final inflation readings will be published around the region, starting on Tuesday with Germany and followed on successive days by France, Spain and Italy.
Germany’s ZEW gauge of investor sentiment is scheduled for Tuesday, as is Italian industrial production. The euro-area production data come out on Wednesday, offering the first overall glimpse of how manufacturing fared during the first month of the Iran war. A second reading of GDP also arrives then.
Turning to the Nordics, data on Monday will reveal Norway’s latest consumer-price numbers in the wake of the surprise rate hike. Inflation has been above the central bank’s 2% goal since early 2021, and probably came in well above 3% once again in April.
On Wednesday in Sweden, minutes of the May 7 Riksbank decision will be released, shedding more light on why officials kept their rate steady and signaled no change in the imminent future. A final reading of inflation there will also come out.
In Israel, inflation is reckoned to have ticked up to 2.1% in April from 1.9%, driven by higher energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.
That report is due on Friday, as is one from Russia, where inflation is forecast to have dipped to 5.7% as restrictive monetary policy and a slowing economy curb price pressures, while the ruble remains strong.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA
A few monetary decisions are on the calendar in the wider region, focused mainly on Africa:
Zambia is expected to leave its rate unchanged at 13.5% on Wednesday, following a 75-basis-point cut at its previous meeting, as policymakers assess the impact of the war on inflation, which has been partly contained by government measures.
Angola and Uganda, meeting a day later, are poised to hold their benchmarks at 17.5% and 9.75% respectively, as they evaluate fallout from the conflict.
And on Friday, Romania’s central bank may keep borrowing costs unchanged. Aside from higher energy prices, officials are assessing the impact of a weaker currency caused by the country’s political crisis.
On Monday in Brazil, analysts’ inflation and key rate forecasts are likely to take another leg up in the central bank’s weekly Focus survey.
Since the start of the war in Iran, the 2026 estimate for annual consumer price rises is up almost a full percentage point to 4.89% — even the 2028 figure has begun to tilt higher — and analysts see inflation of better than 4.6% in June.
Live data out Tuesday from Brazil is all but certain to dovetail with the deteriorating expectations: the benchmark inflation index likely jumped over 4.4% in April from 3.81% as recent as February.
Peru, too, is experiencing a surge in consumer prices — the annual print hit an above-target 4.01% in April — that may give central bankers meeting Thursday cause to at least discuss raising interest rates for the first time since early 2023.
Unemployment data from the country’s capital, Lima, and the country’s GDP-proxy report are also on tap.
In a similar vein, data out of Argentina can be expected to show consumer price increases running close to 3% with faltering growth and mounting job losses pressuring the government. The central bank’s survey of economists now pegs year-end consumer price rises at 30.5%, up from 19.6% expected in November.
Closing out the week, Colombia posts a bevy of economic data on Friday, with quarterly output the marquee attraction. From a downbeat 0.1% expansion in the three months through December, a rebound in manufacturing likely saw quarterly output edge up marginally.
A consensus of analysts see a modest slowing of the economy to 2.5% growth in 2026 from 2.6% last year. Filling out the picture for Colombia-watchers will be March retail sales, manufacturing, industrial production and GDP-proxy data.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America
--With assistance from Beril Akman, Greg Sullivan, Robert Jameson, Monique Vanek, Piotr Skolimowski, Laura Dhillon Kane, Mark Evans, Brian Fowler and Ott Ummelas.
(Updates with Bessent travel in 12th paragraph)
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